Previews for a variety of the stakes races in the UK this coming
Saturday on 27 August including the G2 Cerlebration Mile
Goodwood 3.20 G2 Celebration Mile 1m 3yo+
Realistically shapes as a race in 2 between Poet's Voice and
Dubawi Gold, early on in fixed odds markets there is a big gap
with Poet's Voice overly short at 6/4 and Dubawi Gold at 5/1.
Poet's Voice need to recapture the form it showed last season
winning 2 on end including a nose go over Rip Van Winkle but on
the back of knocking up last start and with minor queries over
the depth of its 1st up run 2 back when 2nd to Wigmore's Hall we
have queries over whether it can hit that level again here, form
starting to suggest a likeness for softish going, on the other
hand Dubawi Gold looks overs at 5/1 and a decent betting
proposition here, he has seemed a bit exposed in his last 2
starts behind 2 very high class horses but his effort to run 2nd
Roderic Oconnor and 2nd to Frankel are good enough form refs to
suggest he can be winning here, pace scenario not totally
suitable but the 5/1 on offer is hard to ignore with the few
queries that do exist.
Win Bet - Dubawi Gold @ 5.80, (traded on Betfair 3.5 hrs before
post)
Place Bet - Dubawi Gold @ 2.60 (traded on Betfair 3.5hrs before
post)
Lay Bet - Beacon Lodge @ 5.90 (traded on Betfair 3.5 hrs before
post)
Dubawi Gold Running 2nd to Frankel in the 2000 Guineas btn
6l
Dubawi Gold running 2nd to Roderic Oconnor in the Irish 2000
Guineas btn 0.7l
Goodwood 2.50 G3 Prestige Stakes 2yo 7f
Decent renewal of this race with the likes of the very well bred
and highly progressive Questing & Rakasa both being engaged
along with the slightly more experiences but proven Regal Realm,
of the opinion that Questing may be a very high class filly on
the make going by the way she destroyed her rivals on debut at
Newbury over 7f when eased down in the final furlong, could have
won by much further that day and she is sure to improve
considerably here, being by Hardspun out of a Seeking The Gold
mare we can expect plenty more to come, Rakasa is also out of a
Seeking The Gold mare and is by leading Australian sire
Redoute's Choice (sire of Elzaam) and will come on significantly
for its debut win on this track over 6f and will be suited by
the extra furlong here but her maiden win was not as good as
Questing and Questing will also get better use of the pace
scenario having 1st run in deep stretch, Regal Realm despite
only starting twice, won hot maiden on debut then 2nd to Angels
Will Fall at Ascot in G3 company does not look to have as much
scope and may well be underbet, if so it becomes layable,
Questing clearly on top here with big confidence and Rakasa next
best.
Win Bet - Questing @ 3.50 on Betfair 3.5 hours before post,
value at 2.20+, good overs, back with mild confidence
Place Bet - Questing @ 1.90, only 2 place dividends here but
considering we have it rated 2.20 then trading at 1.90
represents great value, basically whatever beats in wins, should
be 1.50 for the place, great value overs about a very high
confidence bet
Lay Bet - Regal Realm, happy to be laying this trading at 3.05,
we have a feeling it may drift slightly further so lay now to
secure value.
Goodwood 2.15 Listed March Stakes 14f 3yo+
Looks a fairly weak Listed race in terms of overall depth and it
is super hard to ignore the class edge that Drunken Sailor seems
to have over this field going on its last 3 starts, 3 back 7l
Listed winner over Polly's Mark then 3rd to Await The Dawn and
then franked that getting the better of Harris Tweed last start
who finished infront of it when 2nd to Await The Dawn, carries a
5lb penalty but due to the lack of depth that penalty seems
unders on handicap terms, has this shot to pieces, Motrice
potentially next best but very hard to see anything getting the
better of Drunken Sailor here if it holds the same vain of form
it has shown last 3 starts, one of the banker bets for the day.
Win Bet - Drunken Sailor - was available at 2.30 yesterday, as
expected now into even money, can still be backed at 1.98 which
is just acceptable to secure the needed value factor
Place Bet - nothing
Lay Bet - no major value in lay market with Drunken Sailor (our
banker win bet) firming into even money forcing price out
slightly on other market players.
Newmarket 3.30 Listed Hopeful Stakes 6f 3yo+
A few formerly smart sprinting juveniles of the last 2 seasons
engaged here in the form that look the ones to be supporting,
plenty of varying form references but it is hard to go past the
effort Monsieur Chevalier produced 2 starts ago when a close 2nd
to Society Rock in the G1 Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot, he also
won 6 of its first 7 career starts as a 2yo in 2009, after
missing the 2010 season completely the effort behind Society
Rock suggests he still possesses enough ability to win a race of
this nature as a minimum, he is the clear cut top elect for us,
also interested in the chances of the Hurricane Run 3yo
Cochabamba who comes into this on a quick 7 day back up and has
been well below par in 4 runs this prep, maybe the quick back up
will see it return to the heights it showed as a juvenile when
2nd to Theyskens' Theory and 2nd to Cape Dollar at G3 and G2
level, also first try back over 6f, won by 4l on debut over this
trip, likely big price and warrants specking in support of
Monsieur Chevalier.
Win Bet - Monsieur Chevalier trades at 3.80, about the right
price, dont want it any shorter, the major win bet, also back
Cochabamba for a minor win outlay trading at 40.00
Place Bet - just nibble at Cochabamba, no major confidence for
place betting this race.
Lay Bet - nothing.
Monsieur Chevalier running 2nd to Society Rock in the Golden
Jubilee
Windsor 6.40 G3 Winter Hill Stakes 10f 3yo+
This shapes as a very strong G3 race with no less than 5 of the
engaged 12 horse field capable of winning at G2 level let alone
G3 level, should be enough value on offer here to back the top 2
chances for a result across the race, on top we have sided with
the Australian bred Galileo 4yo mare Mahbooba (foaled August 07
to SH time), won the G1 7f Golden Slipper by 2.5l in South
Africa in 2010 before shipping to Dubai where it was an
impressive winner over Reem before finishing a close 2nd to
Kwahlah over 10f in the G3 UAE Oaks with a big 8l margin back to
3rd, strong renewal, good form reference, not disgraced last
start when a close 3rd to potential high class French Navy (only
defeat at hands of Roderic Oconnor in the G1 Criterium at the
end of 2010), Mahbooba looks ready to peak now for the astute De
Cock yard and should prove hard to hold out, the other one that
makes good appeal and can also be backed is the Godolphin charge
Prince Bishop on which Dettori is engaged, yard has a total of 3
runners engaged, this Dubawi 4yo colt finished only 5l adrift of
Twice Over and Victoire Pisa in Dubai earlier in the year and is
1st up here but its form at the end of last season including the
scalp of Cirrus Des Aigles in a strong G2 at Longchamp has to be
respected, back it with decent confidence in support of Mahbooba,
next best close behind are Prince Zigfried (Godolphin), Simon De
Montfort (Godolphin) and Dux Scholar (K Abdulla), those 3 can be
played in exotics with the top 2, lay any other runner under
10/1.
Win Bet - Mahbooba & Prince Bishop, same outlay on both
Place Bet - Mahbooba
Lay Bet - ??, assess further once market is formed
