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RACE PREVIEWS - 11/09/2010 |
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Rosehill R4 No9 Classics & No6 Halekulani -
enough depth to back 2 here at the early prices on offer with
big confidence for a winning result, overall the depth of this
race is well above Listed level and shapes a big future form
race with plenty of winners likely to come out of it, Classics
can be forgiven for its last start average effort behind
Squamosa, her debut win was top class scoring by 4.3l at
Canterbury albeit on heavy ground, she has big scope for further
improvement on that run being so lightly raced, she represents
the major hope, the other one of major interest Halekulani is
superbly bred and looked very smart on debut scoring by 2l at
Canterbury, his trial win prior at Randwick knocking off
subsequent wide margin winner Al Aseel was also very impressive,
major scope for more here, at 6.50 (Classics) & 8.00
(Halekulani) they can both be backed to equal degrees of
confidence for a good result across the race. Decision Time is a
massive lay as the 3.30 early favorite, expect it to drift
closer to 5.00.
Rosehill R5 No7 The Embassy & No8 Scottish Border
- no doubting Herculian Prince looked a smart type winning 4
times on end last prep but the depth of those staying events has
to be questioned, The Embassy looked a world beater defeating
Alexander Of Hales by a widening 4l in the Randwick City Stakes
at G3 level last prep and on a repeat has Herculian Prince cold,
must play the value angle at 11.00 on offer for The Embassy,
Scottish Border also has claims as an improving stayer bred for
this type of trip by Danewin and comes into this on the back of
a good win over Legsman last start, big margin to 3rd, that form
ref through Lockmar 3rd home back to Hawk Island and
subsequently Snow Alert suggests Scottish Border has a fair bit
on Scouting Wide, if that form line proves true it is capable of
shaking this at a good price, also 11.00 on early fixed odds
markets, back both The Embassy and Scottish Border at the 10/1
on offer for both for a result across the race. Scouting Wide is
the value lay in early fixed odds markets on offer at 3.25 or
9/4.
Rosehill R6 No4 More Joyous - returned in
superb order winning 1st up last start with 59kg on her back
defeating a very strong Listed field over 1100m by 1l, hit the
line strongly suggesting this 1400m is totally what she is
looking for 2nd up from a spell, no doubt she is a high class G1
galloper who is destined for big things this preperation (Cox
Plate well within her reach if connections choose to go that
way), this should merely be a stepping stone, exceptionally good
value in early fixed odds markets at 2.60, anything better than
2.00 or 1/1 is value, Drumbeats, Rothesay and Descarado should
be fighting out the minor placings. Brilliant Light is a big
value lay at 5.50 in early fixed odds markets, expect it to
drift significantly closer to 8.00 on race day.
Rosehill R7 No1 Patronyme - the pace scenario
and barrier draw is critical here with so many of these so
evenly matched, admittedly this one has been asked to lump a big
weight but it will go forward from the 6 alley and get a fairly
good trip on the front end without being asked to work too hard
early (most of the other speed drawn outside it), this factor
may offset the big weight, 2.3l trial win over Tickets in prep
for return this prep reads well and 3rd up last prep won the G3
Birthday Stakes over this track and distance over 2 very smart
fillies Beaded and Melito, very good odds at 10.50 in early
fixed odds markets and warrants backing as the value commodity
here. Verballed cant win so if they bet less than 10/1 about it
on the exchanges it becomes the lay in the race.
Moonee Valley R6 No1 Reward For Effort - the
top 3 in the betting market look very evenly matched on exposed
current form but a few factors make us lean towards Reward For
Effort here, he is 3rd up and rock hard fit whilst the other 2 (Haylist
and Catapulted) are both 1st up, also Reward For Effort looks
the most adaptable under the pace scenario and drawn the 1 alley
is likely to be onpace without working early but can relax and
get the run of the race stalking the leaders if need be, they
all look very smart sprinters and have it between them, not
really a major betting race for us. Too many ifs and buts to me
laying any of the major 3 in the market here with any
confidence.
Moonee Valley R7 No5 Shoot Out - looked
exceptional winning 2nd up in the Liston Stakes G2 defeating
Predatory Pricer then copped a very hard trip 3rd up but battled
on very strong considering when 1.5l 3rd to So You Think last
start, very good hidden merit, likely for a much better trip
here stalking Typhoon Tracy, on numerous form references has her
measure and also has the measure of Whobegotyou, well placed and
very hard to beat, 2.80 in early markets seems very good value,
one of the banker bets of the day. Typhoon Tracy as equal
favorite early at 2.80 represents good laying value.
Moonee Valley R1 No7 Pitt Street & No14 Almindora
- the betting market looks fairly correct here (on seen exposed
form) but we have minor queries around the depth of the form
that will come out of Servant's last start 2nd to Sistine Angel
so we lean towards Pitt Street on top who carries similar form
refs through his debut 4th to Soul over 1000m at Flemington, the
step to 1500m 2nd up here totally suits it on breeding, obvious
queries around the wide draw but mot a lot of speed is engaged
so it should cross and race on pace without working too hard
early, there is a big value commodity we will also back here in
the form of Almindoro who is by Redoute's Choice out of the well
related Machiavellian mare Alalunga (3rd dam is the Canadian
blue hen No Class by Nodouble and she is considered one of the
great blue hen mares of the 20th century), so back both Pitt
Street on offer at 7.50 approx and Almindora on offer at 50/1
and better for a result across the race.
Moonee Valley R2 No2 Berlioz - shapes as a very
weal race in terms of overall depth with not many seen chances,
went the way of the lightly raced Zabeel 5yo Berlioz who looked
very good 2 starts ago unleashing big closing pars to win over
1700m at Flemington on a slow track, that run suggested he is
back to somewhere near the form he showed as a 3yo in early 2009
when winning the VRC St Leger on the back of finishing 2nd in
the WA Derby, he has scope for further improvement on that 2nd
up win this prep and after the claim gets in here very well
weighted, ticks plenty of boxes for an inform yard, very good
value at 9/2+ in early markets, anything better than 5/2 is good
value.
Moonee Valley R3 No8 Sussuro & No2 Miss Gai Flyer
- very open affair with lots of mixed form lines creating
excellent value about plenty of the runners engaged here, leant
towards the well bred lightly raced Pivotal filly Sussuro on top
here, stable whispers are very strong for this filly from one of
our scouts and she was an impressive trial winner over Pinker
Pinker by 1.5l on a heavy track at Cranbourne prior to her debut
last prep, that form ref has since been franked with Pinker
Pinker winning twice on end last time over a strong $76K Open
3yo fillies field at Flemington, the other one at value odds
that makes big appeal is the Flying Spur filly from the Moody
yard Miss Gai Flyer who can be forgiven for her 1st up failure
last start, her win over Trisara 3rd up last prep over this
track and distance puts her right in this up to her ears, she
rates equal with Sussuro on that run, so back both of them for a
result across the race, Sussuro 7.50 and Miss Gai Flyer 9.00.
The value lay in this race is Cristallo currently 2nd favorite
at 7.00.
Moonee Valley R4 No10 Off The Planet - well
bred lightly raced improver by Fusaichi Pegasus who comes into
this 1st up from a spell well drawn in the 3 alley to secure a
good trip stalking the pace from better than midfield, very good
effort over this distance 4th up last prep at Sandown scoring by
2.8l, in well weighted vs the other major hopes and looks the
best of these at the weights in a fairly even field, no major
confidence but likely odds of 6/1 or better (currently 7.00 on
Betfair, market set to 113.8%) suggests it is the value angle to
play. The value lay is Big Spirit who looks likely to get a
tough trip drawn the 11 alley.
Moonee Valley R5 No14 Yoburg & No2 Elusive Touch
- this looks a good betting race, leant towards the well
weighted Yoburg on top here who comes into this shipping from
Sydney and 2 impressive wins this prep on wet tracks by big
margins both times at Randwick, the 6yo son of Johannesburg
looks to be in career best form now and looks totally suited to
the Moonee Valley layout, despite being drawn wide he has sharp
gate speed and if he crosses the face of the field early without
working too hard early he will prove very hard to run down in
the stretch, currently at 20/1+ he offers great value, the other
major player is the 7/2 favorite Elusive Touch and if Yoburg was
not engaged we would be prepared to declare Elusive touch one of
the 'good things' of the day on the back of winning 2 from 3
this prep including a very smart G3 win at Flemington last
start, with M Rodd booked he looks likely to secure the run of
the race stalking the leaders on the rail, so back both Yoburg
20/1 and Elusive Touch 7/2 for a very confident result across
the race, obviously at the odds outlay more on Elusive Touch.
Moonee Valley R8 No15 Jolie Brise & No11 Valdemoro
- another very good value betting affair here on the M Valley
card, the odds assessors have totally missed Jolie Brise in our
opinion here, she is currently on offer at 50/1 on the exchanges
and 40/1+ with bookmakers, she is very well bred by Fastnet Rock
out of the Last Tycoon mare Vestey (G3 Port Adelaide Cup winner)
who has already produced the Listed winner Rutherford Eagle, she
comes into this 2nd up and can be forgiven for her 1st up
failure at Caulfield when btn 4.1l by I'm A Hussy over a totally
unsuitable 1100m (steps to a more suitable 1600m trip here), she
won 2 trials in prep for her return suggesting she is more than
capable of firing on all cylinders this prep and she won 3 on
end this time last year on wet tracks defeating the likes of My
Emotion and Set For Fame into 2nd on each occassion before then
finishing 0.9l 4th to Irish Lights in the G1 Thousand Guineas
over this trip, she is likely to go forward here and race on
pace in a race devoid of early speed and get a very good trip,
she ticks way too many boxes to be such a big price and must be
backed, there is 2 big class runners in the field in the form of
Valdemoro and Faint Perfume and we feel Valdemoro is the class
runner worth also backing out of those 2 as she is likely to
settle closer to the pace than Faint Perfume over this 1600m
trip and Faint Perfume is sure to be better suited over a bigger
track like Flemington so on that note Valdemoro gets its chance
to turn the tables here on Faint Perfume but may struggle to run
down Jolie Brise who looks likely to get it soft on the front
end. So back both Jolie Brise at the big odds and Valdemoro (on
offer at 7/1 or 8.00) for a result across the race, Confidence
is strong considering the value on offer for a big collect, the
value lay here is Ghost Milk likely to trade around 4.30 to 4.50
on the exchanges, she has won 4 of her last 5 but this is a
major step up in class and she looks overexposed here taking
that big step up in class against high quality mares.
Rosehill R1 No6 Pontiana - very well bred filly
by Redoute's Choice out of the top class race mare Liberty Rose,
comes into this having 2nd career start making a marked step up
the class ladder on the back of what looked an average maiden
win at Kembla Grange last start, came at leader unpressured that
day and went to line untouched, clearly superior, value for much
further than 0.8l winning margin, prior won a trial at Rosehill
over 900m and form refs out of that trial suggest it has the
edge on the race favorite Zutara, gets in here with only 51kg
whilst Zutara has to carry 59.5kg, weighted to win, the other
market leader Classics looks the major danger but it is likely
to start in the Listed race (Race 4) on the same card chasing
blacktype. Pontiana shapes as very good value here at 10.00+ on
the exchanges, likely a bit shorter after Classics gets
scratched on race morning.
Rosehill R2 No10 Top Drop - shapes as a race in
2 between the market leaders Pureness and Top Drop but our
leaning is towards the early 2nd favorite Top Drop here, it is
obvious that Pureness should get an uncontested lead here which
will see it in favourable terms for most punters but Top Drop is
likely to race a lot closer to the speed from the 3 alley
compared to what it did when battling on resolutely in the
Golden Rose G1 last start when 10th to Toorak Toff after being
caught 4 deep with no cover, that soft drop on Pureness and the
5.5kg pull in the weights it gets will be enough to see it get
home over the top of Pureness and win this race. Currently on
offer at 4/1+ on the exchanges it looks to be one of the good
value high confidence bets of the day.
Rosehill R3 No14 Lighthorseman - this horse has
promised to do something special for quite sometime and in this
race it gets the perfect opportunity to deliver on the promise
it has shown, won a trial over Daliegh by 4.8l in prep for
return then was heavily supported 1st up last start when it
tried to dictate in front, probably not the best way to ride it,
here it gets the chance to stalk the leaders with the run of the
race under a solid tempo and should bounce back to that super
hot trial form, at the weights if it reaches anywhere near that
level it will win clearly against this lot, shapes as one of the
better value bets of the day currently at 10/1 in early markets,
Thankgodyourhere is the clear favorite and looks the value lay
in the race.
Kembla Grange R1 No5 Refuse Me - lightly raced
and deceivingly well bred by Refuse To Bend out of the Caerleon
mare Afraah (staying / stout pedigree), 3 runs this prep look
average on paper but all over unsuitable distances, gets into a
very weak maiden here and looks the likely solo soft leader,
rock hard fit now 4th up looking for this trip, two very good
trial efforts when with Gai Waterhouse suggest it has the class
to win such a weak event.
Kembla Grange R2 No4 Triple Crown - high class
juvenile last season who drops sharply in class here on the back
of 2 average efforts in town this prep, good trial winner in
prep for return suggesting it has lost none of its juvenile
ability, biggest query it faces is the weight it must carry here
vs older horses, has this won from the class angle.
Kembla Grange R3 No3 Faithful Beau & No13 Miss
Confidential - potentially a very big value betting
affair, leant towards Faithful Beau as the major elect here,
deceivingly hot speed pedigree by under-rated son of Sunday
Silence in the form of Keep The Faith out of a Keltrice mare,
finished 0.2l 2nd to Hinchinbrook and 1l 2nd to Masquerader in
seperate trials in prep for debut when down the track behind
Ilovethiscity, prepared to forgive that run, likely to go
forward and get a decent on pace trip, the one they have to run
down at big odds, the other value runner here is the well bred
Miss Confidential who is by Stratum out of the multiple winning
Snippets mare Exquisitely, astute trainer in the form of Mark
Wallace (excellent UK record before relocating to Australia
hasnt had many chances with decent horses yet), finished 4.5l
2nd to a potentially very smart horse in the form of April In
Venice after sitting outside it showing very good speed under
trial conditions at Rosehill over 900m, well drawn in the 4 gate
for a good on pace trip and gets in very well weighted with only
52kgs after the claim for decent apprentice hoop, the prepost
favorite Charging Cross does look very smart but no value and
drawn a shocking alley, so back both Faithful Beau (20/1 prepost)
and Miss Confidential (40/1 prepost for a potential massive
return across the race.
Bairnsdale R1 No14 Wildcat Strike & No10 Wild West
- enough value in early markets to back 2 here at decent odds
for a result across the race, Wildcat Strike looks well above
this level 1st up last prep when close up 2nd to Life Is A
Cabernet, can improve on her 1st up run this prep, best exposed
form here, the other one of interest is the Freedman trained
Wild West by Charge Forward out of the very good Danewin mare
Trail Of Gold who has already produced the G1 winner Gold Trail,
finished 3rd on debut and has scope for big improvement, back
both Wildcat Strike & Wild West at even outlays for a result
across the race.
Bairnsdale R2 No12 Miss Panama & No13 Renumani
- good confidence about these 2 for us, Miss Panama on top and
well bred by Not A Single Doubt, only btn 0.3l by General Truce
with a big margin to 3rd before 1st career start, good merit
last start 3rd, well placed her4e, the other major one is
Renumani on her 2 starts in her first preperation, back both for
a result across the race.
Previews updating soon covering meetings from Bairnsdale,
Belmont, Doomben, Gold Coast, Kembla Grange, Moonee Valley,
Morphettville, Rosehill, Tamworth & Toowoomba
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