The 2011 Kentucky Derby shapes as a very good value betting affair with a wide open market suggesting plenty of chances. We have handicapped the race top to bottom and have identified 7 horses that are capable of figuring in the exotics and have identified 2 that can be backed with decent confidence in the win betting market for a result across the race.

Our predicted order of finishing is as follows....

• 1st #18 Uncle Mo
• 2nd #11 Master Of Hounds
• 3rd #8 Dialed In
• 4th #17 Soldat
• 5th #4 Stay Thirsty
• 6th #14 Shackleford
• 7th #15 Midnight Interlude

Our assessment of each horse from a handicapping perspective along with key race videos for the 2 win betting chances Uncle Mo and Master Of Hounds is as follows.

No18 Uncle Mo - the biggest query for Uncle Mo is the shocking alley it has drawn out near the carpark, his Breeders Cup Juvenile win was high class and still to this day the strongest form reference in this race by far, the way he repelled Boys At Tosconova and went away from the rest of the field in the stretch was the sign of a top class horse of the highest order, won a strong renewal of the Timely Writer (mild hand ride in stretch, plenty of improvement on that run) 1st up for 3yo season back on March 12 and form refs out of that race back through the likes of recent G2 winner Adios Charlie suggest it retains all of its 2yo ability and dominance, forget the Wood Memorial run last start, it was simply too bad to believe, if he can negate the wide gate and get a softish on pace trip he wins. Need 4.00+ for value.

Uncle Mo - Key Run - Breeders Cup Juvenile 2010

 

No11 Master Of Hounds - the simple fact that an Aidan O'Brien trained runner shows up for the Kentucky Derby has to be respected, sure to have come on significantly since finishing 2nd in the UAE Derby, good effort with margin to 3rd, finished 3rd in a good renewal of the Racing Post Trophy G1 as a 2yo at Doncaster and that was on the back of running 2nd to subsequent G1 winner Roderic o'Connor 2 starts earlier who is one of the few horses to get within 2 lengths of the mighty Frankel, drawn Ok in the 11 alley to secure one of the runs of the race, superbly bred by Kingmambo out of the very well related Sadler's Wells mare Silk And Scarlet, the big surprise horse, priced up at 31.00 in prepost markets, massive overs, warrants specking in support of top elect Uncle Mo

Master Of Hounds - Key Run - UAE Derby 2011

 

No8 Dialed In - prepost favorite on the back of winning the Florida Derby last start by a head over Shackleford, looks the strongest current form ref and likely for a good trip from the 8 alley but does look 1 level below the form of Uncle Mo if the real Uncle Mo shows up.

No17 Soldat - forget last start failure behind Dialed In in the Florida Derby, win the start prior by 2l in the G2 Fountain Of Youth reads completely different and on a par with Dialed In, wide gate the big query as it is at its best when making all, must be included in exotics.

No4 Stay Thirsty - has failed 2 of last 3 starts behind both Uncle Mo in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and then last start behind Dialed In, in between won the G3 Gotham suggesting is clearly better than those 2 failures suggest and also was a strong 2nd to Boys At Toscanova in the G1 Hopeful which once again contradicts the btn margin behind Uncle Mo in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, likely perfect trip from the 4 alley, has to be respected, one of the horses capable of springing a big odds upset, same owners as Uncle Mo.

No14 Shackleford - winner 3 of 5 in short career, forget failure 2 back btn 23l by Soldat, clearly better than that run suggests, got blowsed by Dialed In in the Florida Derby last start, gate creates a big query due to being at best trying to make all.

No15 Midnight Interlude - came of age last start winning the Santa Anita Derby after a facile wide margin maiden win, bred to stay the trip by War Chant out of a New Zealand bred Groom Dancer mare, stamina strong on bottom half of pedigree, astute yard who have won this race 3 times, must be respected.

Betting Advice

Win Betting

Churchill Downs R11 No18 Uncle Mo - 3 unit win bet @ 6.60+ on Betfair (may hit 7.00)

Churchill Downs R11 No11 Master Of Hounds - 1 unit win bet @ 24.00+ on Betfair (likely to drift further closer to post, European money will keep it under until then)

Exotic Betting

Bet with decent confidence of nailing the exotics playing with the numbers of the top 7 chances listed above.