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Coolmore Stud |
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2011 Caulfield Cup Preview |
The 2011 Caulfield Cup we feel is not an overly strong renewal
compared to other years and this is emphasized by the fact
weights were raised 2.5kg which is the first time that has
happened in the history of the race.
December Draw is all the rage in betting markets trading at 2.60
early but we feel he can be opposed with good confidence and
because he is so short in the market great value is created
about our major seen chances making this a very good betting
race.
Our top 10 rated chances with assessed market prices are as
follows
Caulfield R8 2400m G1 $2.5M
No18 Southern Speed
6.50
No16 Green Moon
8.50
No14 Niwot
9.50
No1 Mighty High
13.00
No2 Drunken Sailor
14.00
No5 Lucas Cranach
15.50
No12 Absolutely
17.50
No9 December Draw
24.00
No11 Tullamore
24.00
No17 Macedonian
26.00
Base Race Analysis
We will start by saying we feel December Draw is big unders
trading at 2.60 on Betfair , admittedly it keeps winning but we
are of the opinion the overall depth of its wins are
questionable when considering it needs to step out to 2400m
here, being out of a Danzero mare we have had concerns about the
stamina in its pedigree.
Southern Speed has been thrown in at the weights and has that
classic looking improving form of a good 4yo mare that is likely
to hit a new career peak here, better suited here at Caulfield
than it was last start at Flemington when 4th to December Draw,
on its effort 2 back when 2nd to Lion Tamer it looks the one to
beat here, it gets a gun trip under the pace scenario and with
only 52.5kg will prove hard to run down after getting 1st run on
them.
Green Moon's form has been franked out of its Newcastle Cup win
last start and it has had 30 days off to get over that taxing
tough performance, that run suggested it may be back to the form
it showed in May 2010 as a lightly tried staying prospect in the
UK when it put 3 on end together including a high merit win over
Monterosso by big spaces over this distance, the form out of
that race has since been franked many times over through the
beaten brigade, its pedigree being by Montjeu out of a stakes
winning French bred Green Tune mare suggests this is its optimum
trip, it looks the one set to lock horns with Southern Speed in
deep stretch and prove hardest to get past.
Niwot is a very interesting runner for John Hawkes, it's 2 wins
at Flemington last prep by big spaces over Fanjura and then
Listed win over 3200m both read very strong for this, last start
it battled on strong when 2nd to Mourayan over 2500m once again
at Flemington, out of his last 9 starts at 1800m+ he has won 5
of them by a shortest margin of 2l and all of them at minimum
city Saturday grade, if he overcomes the wide gate he has claims
here at a massive price.
Read on further below for short comments for all runners.
Betting Advice
WIN BETTING - backing 3 horses to win being the top 3
rated runners above
Southern Speed - 3 unit win bet @ 18.50
Green Moon - 3 unit win bet @ 13.50
Niwot - 1 unit win bet @ 100.00
PLACE BETTING - backing 2 horses for the place
Southern Speed - 10 unit place bet @ 5.20
Niwot - 2 unit place bet @ 25.00
LAY BETTING - only win market laybetting
December Draw - lay to risk 10 units @ 2.60
EXOTIC BETTING
Quinella 16,18 with 1,2,5,14,16,18 - total 9 combinations
Trifecta - 1st 1,2,5,14,16,18 / 2nd 1,2,5,14,16,18 / 3rd
1,2,5,9,11,12,14,16,18 - total 270 combinations
Comments for each runner are as follows, full field of 18
starters, emergencies not included, if they gain a start
assessments for them will be added as soon as known and
possible.
Caulfield R8 2400m G1 $2.5M
No1 Mighty High - preperation timed to perfection 3rd up into
this, form around Ambitious Dragon in the QEII Cup reads very
strong, drawn the 1 alley with Beadman booked, solid claims
No2 Drunken Sailor - has been up for a long time this season but
runs well spaced, Newbury win 4 back by 7l and Goodwood G3 win 2
back both read strong, wide gate but if it can overcome that
factor form suggests it is up to this.
No3 Manighar - better suited to Melb Cup trip, also below the
required level, but does have Oliver from a good gate, so cant
wind out to ridiculous odds
No4 Unusual Suspect - 1st up 4th in Australia offered some
encouragement but form since exposed out of that race, USA G1
turf form traditionally well below European G1 turf form and his
USA G1 form reads that way, making up the numbers
No5 Lucas Cranach - German G1 win 2 back at Hamburg suggests up
to this level but form refs slightly mixed out of the race,
drawn the 3 alley which may not suit under racing pattern
No6 Precedence - has claims on form from last season around this
time, Cummings trained, thereabouts
No7 Hawk Island - needs to find another level on last 2 2nds in
Sydney
No8 Shootoff - no real depth in Derby win in Brisbane over
winter, query over depth of form of those who finished behind it
last start when 2nd to My Kingdom Of Fife
No9 December Draw - query at this trip and form refs out of last
2 wins are questionable, this is the acid test, happy to risk at
the short price
No10 Saptapadi - thereabouts in big handicaps in the UK this
season but hard to see it improving the required 4l to be in the
mix here, draw biggest tick we can give it
No11 Tullamore - hard to ignore the merit associated to his
2400m G2 win in Brisbane over the winner getting the better of
Glass Harmonium, barrier bot the best but not that bad off vs
favorite December Draw on a line through Glass Harmonium, has
claims
No12 Absolutely - ready for peak now 4th up, of the opinion this
one is not just a wet tracker, take out last start behind
December Draw and form reads perfect for an Oaks 3yo winner
likely to peak over this trip, serious contender
No13 Dream Pedlar - no depth to last start G3 win on a wet track
at the Valley, gate destroys chances even more, making up the
numbers
No14 Niwot - wide gate the biggest query, showed last start 2nd
to Mourayan was working towards a good peak for this prep,
Flemington wins over 2000m and 3200m by big margins last prep
suggest it is thrown in at the weights here if it can hit those
levels, leading claims at odds
No15 Domesky - looks to be simply making up the numbers, hard to
see it figuring
No16 Green Moon - very tough last start winning the Newcastle
Cup last start, has had 30 days to get over that and shapes as
though it is capable of hitting the level that saw it put 3 on
end together including a 4l win over Monterosso in May last year
in the UK, well weighted on the evidence of that, barrier
biggest negative, in this up to its ears, interestingly Williams
has not accepted with horses like At First Sight and Midas Touch
ensuring this gets into the final field
No17 Macedonian - more of a Melbourne Cup profile but in well
weighted for a good alley and stamina will never be in doubt,
can figure if all the cards fall his way
No18 Southern Speed - 2nd to Lion Tamer 2 back looks a very hot
form reference for this considering it gets in with only 52.5kg,
forget the fact Lion Tamer failed last start, what they beat
that day makes the form stand up, likely run of the race and her
turn of foot should see her get clear midstretch and prove hard
to run down, clear on top for us
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